I've only made two really public predictions in my life: that cd's would never replace records and tapes, and that the information highway or internet would never catch on. So there you have it.
But recently I was thinking about handmade books. See, I am a card maker by hobby and I like nothing better than getting my hands on some paper for some cutty-cutty, paste-paste therapy.
But did you know that it wasn't until 1450 when Johannes Gutenberg invented the printing press, that books no longer had to be copied and illuminated by hand.
Now when the first book rolled off this press, (the Bible, by the way) you would think it was a day for rejoicing. And it was for some. But others were very wary of the whole thing. They worried that printing was a black art, it seemed too unlikely that pages could be printed that fast. They were concerned about the change and the lack of control of what was in these books.
Also unhappy were the copyists and illuminators who were now out of work. People at the top of their careers, as master craftsmen, really, no longer had careers. This all sounds a little familiar to me, how about you?
This reminds me a little of the impact that the internet and world wide web is havng on the world today. We have many concerns about who is affected and what is happening to that information. We probably all know someone who know longer has the same job because the work they did is done differently, or perhaps done somewhere else, because the internet can make that possible.
But just as the printed book turned out to be a pretty good thing, once the transition was made, maybe we can look down the line and see that the internet may also turn out to be a good thing.
When books were first printed by machine they suddently became available to more than just the rich. Prices werfor the books dropped and they were printed in different languages besides Latin in Europe. Through the books people started to exchang information around the world, leading to new developments, inventions and thoughts.
So, I was pretty much totally wrong about the internet. It did catch on, and you know that because you are reading this today. Perhaps we are in the transition period right now.. Change takes time, and big changes and improvements can take a great deal of time.
So next time I make a prediciton, don't back me on it; I will probably be wrong. But everytime I find myself resisting any type of new technology I think back to the invention of the printed book and just wonder.
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